Mid-segment to drive growth in 2026 with affordability in focus; luxury peaks in core markets

india residential real estate outlook 2026

India’s residential real estate market demonstrated notable structural resilience in 2025, even as activity moderated from the exceptional highs of the previous year. Registration data indicates a clear normalisation in transaction volumes alongside a continued expansion in transaction values, reflecting rising average ticket sizes rather than volume-led exuberance. Residential registrations stood at approximately 5.45 lakh units, while total registered sales value reached about INR 4.46 lakh crore, supported by sustained end-user demand, infrastructure-driven growth corridors and a disciplined supply pipeline. These trends collectively signal the sector’s transition into a more mature, value-driven phase of growth.

Average registered deal values increased sharply during the year, underpinned by steady price appreciation across major cities. Western markets emerged as the dominant growth engine, with Mumbai, Thane, Navi Mumbai and Pune together accounting for nearly two-thirds of transaction volumes and over 70 percent of sales value, reflecting higher ticket sizes and deeper end-user participation. Southern markets contributed around one-fifth of national registrations, led by Hyderabad, while the NCR continued to exhibit sharp intra-regional segmentation, with Ghaziabad anchoring affordable demand and Noida and Greater Noida showing growing mid-segment maturity.

On the supply side, developers maintained strong launch confidence in 2025, introducing over 4.6 lakh new homes, an 18 percent year-on-year increase as per RERA data. The year also marked a pronounced tilt towards premium and luxury housing, with average prices of newly launched 3 BHK units rising to nearly INR 2.1 crore, indicating a recalibration of product positioning and affordability thresholds.

Looking ahead to 2026, the residential market is expected to move towards greater stability and healthier demand–supply alignment. While transaction volumes may stabilise, overall market value is likely to remain supported by elevated ticket sizes and steady end-user demand. Incremental growth is expected to shift towards the mid-income segment, particularly the INR 80 lakh to INR 1.5 crore bracket, as affordability conditions gradually improve. Overall, 2026 is poised to be defined by consolidation, moderated price growth and sustainable, broad-based expansion rather than sharp cyclical upswings.

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Sakshi saxena Sakshi Saxena leads Research at Square Yards, bringing 5+ years of experience across architecture, urban planning, real estate strategy, and market intelligence. A CEPT University alumna, she also participated in Writing the City programs with international authors, strengthening her ability to blend spatial insight with compelling narrative craft. A writer and poet, Sakshi merges analytical depth with creative expression, turning complex data and urban themes into meaningful, human-centered stories.
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